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Earl Mardle's Journal
Friday, June 6th, 2003

Date:2003-06-06 10:05
Subject:The Huge Hole in 3G
Security:Public

A couple of years ago I saw a chart that showed the demand for revenue from 3G systems rising steadily over the next five years as the networks were rolled out and put into operation. What it also showed was the cost of a voice call on a 3G network falling steeply, and the expected revenue from voice forming an ever smaller component of the revenue total over the same period.

The clear implication was that data and other services would have to be found to make up the difference. It pretty soon became obvious that the demand for those data services and the price we are prepared to pay for them are both pretty small. Now the other shoe drops.

The first 3G sales experiences - from "3"
03/06/2003
After all the hype around 3G and "3" and all the services that will be available at high speed over the network - what is the main selling point for a new "3" mobile phone?

Unbelievably it is the price of the voice traffic!

Just a few weeks after "3" launched their mobile phones to the public, the first indications of what the consumers first buying experience are have been collected and analysed by Strand Consult. We have visited a number of "3" outlets - both some of their own and some independent retailers. Everywhere the sales pitch from the salespersons has been the same almost word for word: "3" offers the lowest price on voice minutes.

The three main factors with this strategy that could be unfortunate are the following:

"3" are not focusing on the mobile services that should be generating 20 - 40% of 3G revenues
"3" are buying customers by offering the lowest minute prices in the UK

The two above factors can influence the customers perception of "3" - to the effect that "3" is just a new discount brand - rather than the first 3G mobile operator in Europe.


Even worse for the business, they are conditioning the market as a whole to see the low cost of calls as the primary, perhaps the only justification for 3G as a technology. Not a good sign.

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