or whistling in the dark.

You have to admire this kind of optimism, I think. But what on earth was he smoking when he predicted 25% up on the stock market for the first half of 2003?

Every year Byron Wien, Morgan Stanley's respected strategist, puts on his soothsayer hat and issues his contrarian predictions about the U.S. and world economy, important political events, and business trends. According to an article by Matt Krantz in USA Today (Jan. 9, 2003), Wien was correct with seven out of his ten predictions, including a third consecutive down year for the stock market and no major terrorist attack in the U.S.

His predictions for 2003, some surprising and some less so, are as follows:

1. Stocks rally more than 25% during the first half of the year;
2. Short-term interest rates rise 1 percentage point in the second half;
3. Japan finally recovers, turning Asia into the world's no. 1 economic power;
4. The European Monetary Union teeters on the edge of collapse;
5. Tech companies pay dividends;
6. The housing bubble gets even more inflated;
7. Biotech sizzles;
8. Latin American stock markets recover, led by Brazil;
9. Hilary Clinton announces she'll run for president in 2004;
10. There's no major war in either the Middle East or Asia.

Whatever your view of the Bush plan to goose the US economy, what it has shown is that the days of political momentum are steadily coming to an end. By that I mean the ability of incumbent politicians to have what they say accepted, at least until the contrary position is worked out, the media checks out the usual suspects and finally publishes an approximation of the criticism. That process is no longer relevant as the contribution of Josh Marshall to the Trent Lott fiasco made clear and this paragraph from Kari Lydersen at AlterNet reinforces.

But a wide-ranging coalition of organizations across the spectrum snapped into place almost immediately after the announcement by releasing various alternative stimulus plans. A multi-faceted campaign to defeat Bush's proposal and promote the tenets of the alternate plans is quickly being cemented.